* By “you”, of course, I mean “me” – unless you’re also a Beverly Hills real estate investor and flip-artist.
October 3 2008 Excuse me for not posting for a couple weeks, but I’ve been glued to every and any news source I can find to follow the meltdown of our financial system – and staving off my own emotional meltdown in the process. Regardless of your politics, there’s plenty of blame to be shared across both sides of the aisle and this has been a long-time coming. Like many of us, I’ve been hearing dire warnings from friends on Wall Street for over a year and dismissed them as kill-joy doomsayers like the crazy guy on the street-corner with the “The End Is Nigh” sign. Let’s just hope he’s not right, too.
The silver lining to this gloomy black thunderhead of a cloud is that this could usher in a whole new era of better government, better oversight, stronger regulation and a newer, stronger, more vibrant and sound economy that opens new opportunities for all of us. Or not. We’ll start to find out a month from now.
Preparation plus opportunity equals success. It’s an old saying with many taking credit for it but it’s true and timely. Every change – no matter how painful – brings opportunity for those who are able to identify it and adapt to take advantage of it. The real estate business will fundamentally change. “Flipping” houses may or may not be a viable strategy at least for the near future but plenty of opportunities will exist – some we may not even have thought of yet.
The bright spot in the otherwise dreary real estate market up to now has been the high-end. As the American middle-class weakens, the world’s rich have been getting richer as evidenced by the over-the-top demand for ultra-luxury goods including million-dollar cars and diamond-encrusted human skulls. The very top-end of the real estate market in the select areas of Beverly Hills, Bel Air and Malibu (“Bevairbu”) has remained strong with a few clever realtors having their strongest years ever. Houses in $10 to $30 million range in Bevairbu have been selling briskly to all-cash buyers. When you’re not applying for a loan, you don’t care about mortgage rates. And you can rationalize paying prices above appraisal values. This explains the McCourt’s $19 million purchase of a crumbling beach shack on Malibu’s Carbon Beach next door to the Lautner-designed house they bought for over $33 million. The number of sales of homes over $15 million in Beverly Hills and Bel Air increased over the last 12 months (ending October 1 2008) to a five-year high with more sales than ever getting near or above asking price in fewer than 70 days on market. Remarkable, given what’s been going on everywhere else. And positive sales trends in Beverly Hills is reported in a separate posting here.
Is that party over? Too soon to tell for sure. The world’s super-rich may be too insulated to be affected. Most of these buyers are foreigners – Russian oligarchs, Middle Eastern oil barons or members of exiled political regimes. They may be drawn more than ever to the relatively stable market of Los Angeles’ Westside in an increasingly unstable world.
My advice for the near term is to move into rental properties, building a portfolio of small homes in solid middle-class neighborhoods with a minimum of a five-year time horizon while keeping an eye on the sales activity in the usually recession-proof Bevairbu.
For more about investing in this tumultuous market, read “Amid the Chaos, Is This Any Time to Invest in Real Estate?“
Check back in a few months to see how my advice holds.